Moving Beyond DeMo and GST: Growth Crisis is More Deep Rooted and Needs Tackling

Posting after a long, long time.😊

The economic growth figures released by the Central Statistical Office (CSO) will have the strident critics of demonetisation in a see-we-told-you mode and the ardent supporters more subdued than they have been in a while.

Fiscal year 2017-18 has started out on a dismal note indeed. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew a measly 5.7 per cent in the first quarter (Q1, April-June) against a healthy 7.9 per cent in Q1 of 2016-17.  Other economic data also released yesterday too did not give cheer – eight core industries grew only 2.5 per cent in April-July 2017-18 against 6 per cent in the same period of 2016-17.

For a government that has been patting itself on the back for pulling the economy out of the morass it was in when it assumed power, this is not be welcome news.

The DeMo Deriders insist that the note ban is solely responsible for this worst-ever quarterly growth figures in 13 quarters. However, it would not be entirely factually correct. The other explanation, that the draw down of inventories by manufacturing companies ahead of the goods and services tax (GST) rollout is also responsible, is not the spin that this lot insist it is. It is not just the government that is offering  this explanation; most economic analysts are saying the same. Not all of them will trot out the government line.

It is the combined effect of demonetisation and preparing for GST that saw growth in gross value added (GVA) in the manufacturing sector plummeting from 10.7 per cent in Q1 of 2016-17 to 1.2 per cent in Q1 this year (though base effect could also have played a role). The higher growth posted by the trade, hotels etc segment – 11.1 per cent against  8.9 per cent in Q1 of 2016-17 – shows sales were happening. Anubhuti Sahay of Standard Chartered also  said on Bloomberg Quint that de-stocking has been far more than was expected. It is this manufacturing slump that has pulled down overall GDP growth.

The only sector where demonetisation can be identified as the sole cause of slowdown is construction and real estate. Growth in construction has fallen from 3.1 per cent to 2 per cent between Q1 of 2016-17 and 2017-18. Chief Statistician T.C.A. Anant pointed out that in the `financial, insurance, real estate and professional services’ segment, real estate has done poorly, though he said this was a longer, pre-demonetisation story. But cement production figures in the index  of  core industries also shows a de-growth, month-on-month since November 2016.

But one needs to move beyond the demonetisation explanation. Because the fact is that the economy had been slowing down well before November 2016. This has been said before and has been dismissed as spin, but it bears repeating.

After a blip in Q3 (October-December) of 2015-16 when year-on-year growth fell to 6.9 per cent over the Q2 (July-September) year-on-year growth of 7.8 per cent, there was a rebound to 9 per cent growth (year-on-year) in Q4. But, thereafter, from Q1 of 2016-17, there has been a steady decline, every quarter. Yes, the deceleration sharpened after demonetisation, but it had set in before.

Blaming the slump entirely on demonetisation will give the government a ready excuse – this is an expected but temporary fallout, which will peter out. And it will allow the government to escape an inconvenient question – you promised to put the zing back in the economy, why did it start slowing down under your watch? Have you identified the cause and started  doing something about it? One has to keep the focus on these questions.

Beyond demonetisation and GST, there are clearly some deep-rooted problems that are pulling the economy down. And the signs for the near future are not very good.

Private investment, which is crucial for sustained and robust recovery, is still sluggish. There is a slight uptick in investment as a percentage of GDP – from 25.5 per cent in Q4 of 2016-17 to 27.5 per cent in Q1 of this fiscal. But this is way below what the economy needs and it is not certain if this will sustain.

What is also worrying is that this comes along with a slight dip in private consumption as a percentage of GDP; this has been fluctuating through 2016-17 and in Q1 of this fiscal has dropped to 57.3 per cent. It needs to get back to the around 60 per cent plus levels of the boom years of 2004 to 2008. The economy needs both consumption demand and investment demand. Earlier it was the former which was holding things up, but if this also begins to flag, then there is a serious problem at hand. How much of a boost government spending alone can give remains to be seen. Government expenditure has risen 17 per cent in Q1 and this is because of the front-loading of expenditure thanks to advancing the budget.

Economists continue to debate about whether it is interest rates or other reasons (including the twin balance sheet problem) that are holding up private investment. The government needs to get to the bottom of this urgently and do what it takes to get companies to invest.

There are challenges on the agricultural front too, as evidenced by the difference between the real and nominal agricultural GVA growth (2.3 per cent and 0.3 per cent. This is an indication of a problem in prices and this could translate into a dip in rural demand. A State Bank of India research notes cautions that agricultural growth in the coming quarters could be muted as the monsoons were deficient in key food grain producing states in the first three months.

The laundry list of what the government needs to do at a general level is pretty well  known; it needs to get down to it. The government has moved  on some fronts – subsidy reform, bankruptcy reform, indirect tax reform (though this will be a bit painful initially) – but it needs to move  on others as well – drastically paring down the public sector, banking reforms, to name just two.

The government’s spin doctors are explaining away what is said to be the economic failure of demonetisation by saying the note ban was a political move. The government should now see economic revival as a political matter and do all it takes to get growth back.

Save the country, Dr Singh

http://www.firstpost.com/economy/stand-up-dr-singh-you-have-only-your-doormat-reputation-to-lose-1279879.html

It is indeed interesting that in all the reactions—solicited and unsolicited—that have come after the drubbing that the Congress party has just got in the assembly elections, one voice has not been heard at all—that of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. That, clearly, is a measure of the man's irrelevance. But what he does in the next few months will become increasingly relevant, by virtue of the office he occupies.
Local factors and the disarray in the Congress party no doubt added damaging volume to the anti-Congress wave, but what led to that wave in the first place? Was it not a complete popular disenchantment with the functioning of the United Progressive Alliance government headed by Singh, whose policies have fuelled inflation, messed up the economy and fostered widespread corruption?
Singh is as responsible as the Gandhis for electoral debacle. Had he refused to be a mere figurehead, quietly rubber-stamping the Sonianomics brand of populism and turning a blind eye to corruption, the country would not have been in the mess it is in and the public would not have been so angry as it is today. As prime minister he could have put his foot down on several issues. He did not.
So what do the next few months hold for the country? Any Congress strategy for 2014 cannot revolve around revamping the party machinery alone. Since the Congress is the main party in the UPA coalition, the Central government’s actions or non-actions will also be part of this. The Congress could play it two ways. It could, for one, decide to get the UPA to do a course correction so as to recover some of the lost ground. What can a lame duck government do will remain a question, but the prime minister’s former press advisor Sanjaya Baru has argued in this piece that quite a bit is possible. 

Inflation—the one issue on which people unforgiving—will obviously top the list. The Congress is now claiming a conspiracy is behind the onion price hike. Perhaps, but let’s not forget that food inflation has remained at elevated levels for over a year. The reasons for these are structural and as Finance Minister P Chidambaram himself admitted recently, there is no easy or quick solution to the problem. "I am afraid it will take some time to contain this inflation. We are paying a political price for that and I acknowledge that, but those are the facts," he said on 15 November.
When the country’s finance minister is throwing in the towel, there is no scope at all for taming the inflation dragon within the next five months.
Reviving an ailing economy should be another priority. Here, too, the scope of easy and early successes is doubtful. There are several reform-oriented legislations that need to be passed but that seems unlikely, with an aggressive opposition and uncooperative allies.
Baru has suggested that the government can address issues like uncertainty over tax policy which could alleviate concerns of investors. While that could help the stock markets, quell the fears of foreign investors and arrest a possible flight of capital, it is hardly likely to bring in electoral gains.
The government could shake off the policy paralysis it is caught in and get into action mode, clearing pending projects, ironing out policy glitches and the like. Plan expenditure is only 43 percent of what is budgeted for the year (of which capital expenditure is only 40 percent of what is scheduled) and it could decide to step this up. All this will revive sentiment and businesses may perhaps not put off their investment plans till after the elections. But it takes several months for investment plans to make their effect felt on the economy. So the benefits are not going to come within five months.
Realising that these steps may not reap the expected gains and that it will face certain defeat in May, the Congress could opt for another strategy – to lay booby-traps for the next government. It will then get a stick to constantly beat that government with. Fortunately, the government won’t be able to push bad legislation like the proposed National Right to Homestead Bill through Parliament (though some good legislation will get hit as well) but that will not stop it from taking decisions that are clearly populist and which will leave an enormous fiscal burden for the next government. Some of that has already started. The June decision on pricing of natural gas (read Firstpost editor-in-chief R Jagannathan's criticism of this) and the early announcement of the Seventh Pay Commission are cases in point.
Using the fact that the fiscal deficit is already at 85 percent of the full year’s target, the government could put a lid on spending on the grounds of wanting to stick to the target of 4.8 percent of GDP. That will leave a lot of the spending for the next government. Already, tax refunds are being delayed and oil companies are not being reimbursed for subsidies in time.
The government could also go on a populist announcements spree. Already, news reports say, Chidambaram is under fire for hard decisions and there is a call for rolling back fuel subsidy cuts. Rural Development Minister Jairam Ramesh, for example, wants to hike old age pensions paid under social welfare schemes, when there is evidence that much of this is not reaching the intended beneficiaries.
The assembly elections did not give a clear picture on how voters respond to welfare schemes. Welfarism didn't appear to work in Rajasthan and Delhi but seemed to work in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. So, what is there to stop the Congress from announcing schemes? If it brings in the votes, that’s great (and the fiscal bridge will be crossed when it comes); if it doesn't, well, the next government will have to deal with the economic consequences. The only thing that might stop the UPA from doing this will be the fact that many welfare schemes are implemented by the state governments and non-Congress governments may just walk off with the credit.
The first path will put the economy back on the rails, but the gains for the Congress will be uncertain. The second could swing things in favour of the Congress, but will spell ruin for India. It is now up to Singh to choose between the two. As prime minister, he can still has veto power (though some of his ministers may slip things through). 

Dear Manmohan Singh, for the sake of the country, please opt for the former. You have nothing to lose but your reputation as a doormat.