India's economic growth has prompted many to suggest that it will eventually compete with the other Asian economic giant, China. The numbers of course tell another story. On most counts, foreign investment, infrastructure and sheer economic strength, China is way ahead. Yet, there are sceptics about China. One of them is Yasheng Huang, MIT Sloan Institute of Management professor, whose paper, Can India Overtake China, co-authored with Tarun Khanna, has become a must read on the India-China race. He thinks India's economic model has several positive aspects that Indians themselves tend to dismiss. In an interview, Huang tells Seetha where he thinks China has gone wrong and why India is a better bet.
The Indian development model is seen as more sustainable than the Chinese one. But India is now pursuing the Chinese pattern of export-led, FDI-driven growth.
Indians are enamoured of China when the Chinese themselves increasingly recognise the shortcomings of their development model. I am not criticising the Chinese model as a whole. I am criticising the 1990s model, which is more investment driven. The current central leadership is more concerned about the aftermath of the huge investment programmes, about social issues, of the crowding out effect of FDI. They are increasing investments in agriculture and rural areas. But they cannot change policies drastically, because a lot of them have strong local support base. Besides, it will take some time for the changes to filter through the system.
You have argued that it is not FDI that propels growth but growth that pulls in FDI.
Over the last decade in India, FDI increased but only very moderately, but the growth pick-up was substantial. It's incorrect to say that China's economic miracle was created by FDI. It was created in the 1980s by rural entrepreneurs and economic liberalisation. Worldwide, FDI has played a relatively insignificant role in economic development. Why do we expect large countries like China and India, with huge entrepreneurial bases and domestic markets, to depend so heavily on FDI as a way to grow? I'm not against FDI; I'm FDI neutral. I am also not for protectionism. But the obsession with FDI in China has created huge distortions in the economy, with foreign investors being favoured and domestic ones being discriminated against.
The conmon argument is that FDI provides technology. That is just patently not true. In China we are talking about FDI in textile factories, shoe factories, garment factories. India has the best of both worlds. It can get FDI as well as the benefits of domestic private sector growth. This is what makes the Indian growth story superior and far more sustainable.
You argue that China's infrastructure hasn't been responsible for its growth. But can a country grow if it has an infrastructure deficit?
I didn't say infrastructure is not important for growth. My point is that poor countries struggle without infrastructure and they do something else right that promoted growth. Once you have the growth, you have the resources to invest in infrastructure. A lot of the Indian obsession with China is with Shanghai, with high rises and skyscrapers. That is wrong. I distinguish between business necessary infrastructure like power and roads and business unnecessary infrastructure, like government buildings. Much of the perception of China in India is shaped by business unnecessary infrastructure.
You identify China's lack of democracy as a weakness. But India's democratic advantage is seen as being overestimated.
High quality democracy should not slow down decision-making excessively. If there are problems with political interest groups in the Indian system, the first thing to look at is the quality of democracy. I think democracy is used in India very often as an excuse for not getting things done. It could be a reflection of poor leadership. In a democracy you need leadership, management. Rather than saying it is the problem of democracy, let's ask: do we have the necessary leadership?
Indians lament that our politicians have only a five year vision, while China's policy makers have a longer term vision.
What if that long-term vision is wrong? There is no free lunch. In a democracy, just as in a one party system, you come with certain liabilities. But they are of different kinds. Indians must make up their minds about what kind of liabilities they like and don't like. Land seizures, corruption are big problems in China. And it's all because China doesn't have democracy.
That's a big factor. Whether India is actually going to overtake China or not depends on what China is going to do. They need to reform their financial system, their legal system.
And what does India need to do?
For India to transform itself from a poor struggling developing country into a middle income prosperous one, it needs to have broad success in the manufacturing industry - labour-intensive low-end industries. For that, it has to invest massively in basic education. It should do everything possible not to divert resources that would have gone to the social sector. Indians are so creative, they can think of clever ways of managing this trade-off between physical and social infrastructure. We should never lose sight of the fact that basic education should take priority over all these things.